Median? vs 12-MMA? vs Momentum Þ?

Orangevale 95662 · 8 years. Dollars on the left. Þ on the right (zero = no force).

Distribution by metric

in Sacramento County

(37 Sacramento County zipcodes). Tap a bar to open that geography.

Momentum Swing Indicator?

Monthly tally of zip codes — Up, Down, No Change. Not an average. 8 years.

09-26: 29 Up (27 last month, 19 last year). 20 Down (24 last month, 32 last year). 3 NC. Swing 9 (29 Up, 20 Down). 52 zips tracked.

Last Up high 48 (05-21). Last Up low 1 (08-06). Last Down high 48 (12-22). Last Down low 4 (05-21).

Momentum Buy Zone?

Zip codes with positive median Þ (Þ > 0) vs the 52-zip average median. Positive Þ favors Sellers. 8 years.

Average median $583,000, -1.4% MoM, 0% YoY, peaked 05-22. 21 zips in the Buy Zone (Þ > 0).

Last Buy Zone high 52 (10-22). Last Buy Zone low 0 (02-10).

Glossary

Hover or tap a navy-highlighted term (dashed yellow underline + yellow “?”) for the definition. Terms are part of the published app. Additions, edits, and deletes are made in Build Mode, not on this page.

Wise Market Intelligence System™

Emerson Real Estate’s proprietary read of Sacramento Metro housing from Metrolist data across 3 counties and 52 zip codes. Not a prediction and not legal advice.

Median Price

Closed median sale price from Metrolist. Distressed sales excluded. A price level, not a buyer/seller stance gauge.

Median Price 12-MMA

12-month moving average of median price. Smooths one-month noise so Divergence and Momentum have a baseline. A price level, not a stance gauge.

Median Price Divergence™

Median minus 12-MMA, in dollars. Positive favors Sellers, zero is Neutral, negative favors Buyers. The ▲/▼ count is consecutive months on that side of the 12-MMA.

Median Price Momentum™

Direction and force of the 12-MMA change (Þ). Positive favors Sellers, zero Neutral, negative Buyers. UP/DN is the latest monthly move of Þ, not the sign of Þ itself.

Momentum Swing Indicator™

Monthly tally of zip codes whose median Þ moved Up, Down, or No Change. Not an average. Swing is the gap between Up and Down counts that month.

Momentum Buy Zone

Count of zip codes with positive median Þ (Þ > 0). That count is the Buy Zone — it favors Sellers. Plotted against the 52-zip average median.

Months of Inventory

How long the active listing stock would last at the current sales pace. Under 4 favors Sellers, 4–6 Neutral, over 6 favors Buyers.

Sweat Index™

Emerson Real Estate supply/demand stress index. Positive favors Sellers, zero Neutral, negative favors Buyers.

Market Activity Index™

Activity vs a 50 baseline. Above 50 favors Sellers, 50 Neutral, below 50 favors Buyers.

Lean Score™

Listing phases measured - New, Pended, Sold, Canceled, # Offers, Active, CDOM. Positive = Seller Lean; negative = Buyer Lean. Defined at zip, county, and composite average levels.

Housing Appetite™

Pended listings divided by new listings. Above 50% favors Sellers, 50% Neutral, below 50% favors Buyers.

12-year MMM

Month-matching-month. This September versus the prior 12 Septembers (2014–2025). Sep Avg is the mean of those 12 Septembers. A 12-yr Sep low or high is the current September print in that window — not a 12-month moving average.

Composite Average

Equal-weight average of the 52 tracked zip codes (not a sales-weighted metro median). Used as the baseline row in every geography report.

Favoring

Which side of the market that metric currently supports: SELLERS (green), BUYERS (red), or NEUTRAL. Median and 12-MMA are price levels and do not favor a side.

Gauge

The decision rule for that metric’s Favoring call. Same rule at zip, county, and composite.

30-year mortgage rate

Average 30-year fixed contract rate. Cost of money. Higher rates typically cool buyer demand and stretch affordability. Freddie 30 yr fixed (http://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/mortgage_rates/charts.asp)

Consumer Confidence Index

Conference Board household-outlook index. Rising confidence supports housing demand; falling confidence weighs on it. (https://www.conference-board.org/topics/consumer-confidence)

Consumer Sentiment

University of Michigan consumer sentiment. A second household-mood series used with CCI, not a local MLS metric. (http://www.sca.isr.umich.edu/)

Housing Market Index

NAHB builder sentiment (present sales, traffic, future sales). Leading read on new-home supply appetite. (https://www.nahb.org/News-and-Economics/Housing-Economics/Indices/Housing-Market-Index)

New Home Permits

Building permits authorized. Leading indicator of future new-home supply, lagged before closings. SAC RSVL Metro (http://www.census.gov/construction/bps/msamonthly.html)

Private employment

Private-sector jobs in the Sacramento-Roseville MSA, thousands. Strips out government payroll. SMU06409000500000001 (http://data.bls.gov/cgi-bin/srgate)

Government employment

Government jobs in the Sacramento-Roseville MSA, thousands. A large local payroll share. SMU06409009000000001 (http://data.bls.gov/cgi-bin/srgate)

Single-family starts

Single-family housing starts. New construction pace feeding future inventory. (https://www.nahb.org/News-and-Economics/Housing-Economics/Indices/Housing-Market-Index)

Construction spending

Construction spending series used as a major-force input alongside local MLS composites. (https://www.census.gov/economic-indicators/econ/currentdata/?programCode=VIP&startYear=2002&endYear=2026&categories[]=00XX&dataType=T&geoLevel=US&adjusted=0&notAdjusted=1&errorData=0#table-results)

New Homes Sold

New homes sold in the major-forces sheet. Thin local new-home activity vs resale stock. (https://www.census.gov/economic-indicators/econ/currentdata/?programCode=RESSALES&startYear=2000&endYear=2026&categories[]=SOLD&dataType=COMPED&geoLevel=US&adjusted=0&notAdjusted=1&errorData=0#bar077)

Nonfarm payrolls

National nonfarm payroll change, in thousands of jobs. The 3rd estimate for that month. June 2026 is +31k, half of May and a small gain against a June 2025 loss. Not a Sacramento MLS print. NFP 3rd OTM (https://www.bls.gov/web/empsit/cesnaicsrev.htm)

NFP revision

Later correction to the nonfarm payroll change, in thousands of jobs. Negative means the first report was too high. June 2026 is −26k, a smaller cut than May (−109k) and June 2025 (−160k). NFP 3rd OTM Rev (https://www.bls.gov/web/empsit/cesnaicsrev.htm)